[ad_1]
By Michaël Tanchum, affiliate senior coverage fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations and professor, Universidad de Navarra
Morocco has a giant fertiliser trade with large manufacturing capability and worldwide attain. It is considered one of the world’s top four fertiliser exporters following Russia, China and Canada.
Fertilisers have a tendency to divide into three major classes; nitrogen fertilisers, phosphorus fertilisers, potassium fertilisers. In 2020 the fertiliser market dimension was about $190 billion.
Morocco has distinct benefit in the manufacturing of phosphorus fertilisers. It possesses over 70% of the world’s phosphate rock reserves, from which the phosphorus utilized in fertilisers is derived. And this makes Morocco a gatekeeper of world food supply chains as a result of all food crops require the aspect phosphorus to develop. Indeed, so does all plants. Unlike different finite sources, reminiscent of fossil fuels, there isn’t any various to phosphorus.
In 2021, the world phosphorus fertiliser market amounted to about $59 billion. In Morocco, the sector’s 2020 revenues amounted to $5.94 billion. Office Chérifien des Phosphates, the producer owned by the Moroccan state, accounted for about 20% of the kingdom’s export revenues. It can be the nation’s largest employer, offering jobs for 21,000 people.
Morocco plans to produce a further 8.2 million tonnes of phosphorus fertiliser by 2026. Currently production is at about 12 million tonnes.
The state firm just lately announced that it could improve its fertiliser manufacturing for the yr by 10%. This would put a further 1.2 million tonnes on the world market by the finish of the yr. This will considerably assist markets.
But, as I argue in a new report, Morocco faces new challenges. Its manufacturing of fertiliser is threatened by more and more daunting environmental and financial challenges. They embody the Covid pandemic and the extreme supply chain disruptions which have adopted.
The timing to deal with these is essential.
Russia is at present the world’s largest fertiliser exporter – 15.1% of whole exported fertilisers. And fertiliser represents considered one of the biggest vulnerabilities for each Europe and Africa. For occasion, the EU27 (all of the 27 member state of the European Union) as a complete is determined by Russia for 30% of its fertiliser supply. Russia’s advantageous place is amplified by its standing as the world’s second-largest pure gasoline producer. Gas is a major element of all phosphorus fertilisers in addition to nitrogen fertilisers.
Because of this, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has severe implications for world food safety. Both when it comes to supply, and likewise as a result of fertiliser can be utilized a financial weapon or instrument.
Morocco could due to this fact turn out to be central to the world fertiliser market and a gatekeeper of the world’s food supply that could offset the try to use fertiliser as a weapon.
The journey
Morocco began to mine phosphorous in 1921. During the Nineteen Eighties and Nineteen Nineties it started to produce its personal fertiliser. Office Chérifien des Phosphates (OCP) constructed the world’s largest fertiliser manufacturing hub in Jorf Lasfar on Morocco’s Atlantic coast.
Before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine warfare, the firm had over 350 purchasers on 5 continents. About 54% of phosphate fertilisers purchased in Africa come from Morocco. Moroccan fertilisers additionally account for main home market shares in India (50%), Brazil (40%) and Europe (41%). India and Brazil have reached out to Morocco to fill further supply gaps.
Image from the OCP’s 2020 sustainability report.
Morocco’s economic system has reaped the advantages of the transformation into a global fertiliser exporting big. And in sub-Saharan Africa particularly, the mixture of three way partnership partnerships in native fertiliser manufacturing and direct outreach to farmers has resulted in a remarkable boost to African agricultural yields.
It’s additionally expanded Morocco’s gentle energy affect throughout the continent. For occasion, Morocco supplies over 90% of Nigeria’s annual fertiliser demand.
But, how properly Morocco manages challenges to the trade will have an effect on each its personal financial growth and the stability of food provides throughout the world.
The challenges
Water and vitality constraints
Phosphate extraction and fertiliser manufacturing makes use of a lot of vitality and water. Morocco’s phosphate and fertiliser trade consumes about 7% of its annual vitality output and 1% of its water.
But Morocco is amongst the nations suffering the most from water shortage. This is due to a dry local weather, excessive water demand, local weather change and reservoir contamination and siltation.
Morocco is attempting to deal with this by a National Water Plan 2020-2050. It envisages constructing new dams and desalination vegetation and increasing irrigation networks, amongst different measures, to maintain agriculture and ecosystems. It’s estimated to cost about $40 billion.
Natural gasoline prices
Nitrogen is the different primary fertiliser aspect that vegetation want. Diammonium phosphate, the hottest sort of phosphorus fertiliser worldwide (and which Morocco makes together with monoammonium), is composed of 46% phosphorus and 18% nitrogen. Natural gasoline accounts for at least 80% of the variable value of nitrogen fertiliser.
This means the value of pure gasoline massively impacts manufacturing prices. But Morocco has scant pure gasoline sources. And pure gasoline costs have been hovering.
How properly Morocco manages the food-water-energy nexus will have an effect on each its personal financial growth and the stability of food provides throughout the world.
Some solutions
The key is to broaden its renewable vitality sector. Morocco holds considerable photo voltaic and wind sources. Fertiliser manufacturing could turn out to be powered by renewable vitality, and renewable vitality could be used inside the fertiliser itself.
In 2020, the state’s fertiliser firm coated 89% of its vitality wants by co-generation (producing two or extra types of vitality from a single gas supply) and renewable vitality sources. Its goal is to ultimately cowl 100% of its vitality wants on this means.
Renewable vitality could even be used inside the fertiliser itself. Instead of importing ammonia derived from pure gasoline, Morocco could produce its personal utilizing hydrogen produced from its home renewable vitality sources.
According to the state firm, 31% of its water wants are met with “unconventional” water sources, together with handled wastewater and desalinated seawater.
Morocco’s rising reliance on desalination vegetation to fulfill industrial, agricultural and residential wants would require sizeable new investments in energy technology from renewable vitality sources. Desalination vegetation require 10 times the amount of energy to produce the identical quantity of water as standard floor water therapy.
To maintain operations and broaden inexperienced ammonia manufacturing, Morocco can have to strike a cautious steadiness between its fertiliser exports, its drive to broaden its high-value agricultural exports and the provision of ingesting water to its inhabitants.
Using its giant photo voltaic vitality sources to energy inexperienced hydrogen and inexperienced ammonia manufacturing, together with desalination, Morocco could escape the vicious cycle of the upward spiralling of costs in the food-energy-water nexus.
This article was initially printed on The Conversation.
Related articles
[ad_2]
Source link
